January 19, 2026

As we enter 2026, the democratic landscapes of Europe and the European Union face unprecedented challenges, particularly with the anticipated surge of populist parties. The national and regional elections scheduled across various European states carry significant implications for the stability and trajectory of European democracy. A pivotal consideration this year is whether these populist movements will solidify their influence and what ramifications this may entail for the European political framework.

One essential element influencing this dynamic is the recent United States National Security Strategy, which signals a commitment to support far-right factions in Europe against established political entities. Concurrently, the United States appears to be carving out an independent international path, neglecting its historical advocacy for global democracy. Notable events, such as the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, purportedly under the guise of combating drug trafficking and seeking strategic oil exploitation, call into question America’s dedication to democratic principles. Additionally, threats to “claim” Greenland from Danish control amplify concerns regarding transatlantic unity within the Western alliance of NATO. Furthermore, the United States push for Ukraine to adopt a “peace plan” primarily favored by Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests a troubling era of geopolitical realignment.

These developments lend an air of urgency to the situation, placing European democracies in a precarious position wherein populist parties, often adopting pro-Russian or at least neutral stances, derive inspiration from the Trump administration’s tactics. The methods employed by the U.S. under Trump—restricting immigration, conducting mass deportations, dismantling progressive climate policies, accompanied by an anti-woke policy—have become appealing blueprints for European populists.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the electoral outcomes of 2026 are expected to determine the extent of populist successes across Europe and the European Union. The following overview presents critical elections, underscored by the aforementioned considerations. At the end of the article the conclusions are wrapped up in the perspective of the world order, focusing in particular on the role of the United States and China.

Key National Elections across Europe

Germany In September, elections are set to occur in the regions Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the far-right AfD (Alternatives for Germany) party polling at approximately 40%. Subsequent regional elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate states will further assess Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s popularity and the nascent power of the far right.

France Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s governance barely had the 2026 budget pass. Should a parliamentary collapse occur, not unconceivable in the weak French political context, Jordan Bardella of the far-right Rassemblement National may emerge as France’ prime minister, potentially marking a historic political shift. Additionally, local elections on March 15 and 22, where the extreme right Rassemblement National is expected to make a good result,  will serve as bellwethers for the upcoming presidential election in 2027.

United Kingdom Outside of EU dynamics, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership may come under fire should Nigel Farage’s populist party Reform UK achieve notable victories in May’s local elections.

Hungary Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a key figure in the radical right Fidesz party, is facing a challenge in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which are expected in April. The opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, a former member of Fidesz, currently leads the polls with 49 percent, while Orbán’s Fidesz trails at 37 percent. Both parties share similar stances on social issues like LGBTQ+ rights and immigration, but Magyar is advocating for improved purchasing power for Hungarians, which is among the lowest in Europe, and for stronger ties with Brussels. While Hungary may stand apart from the trend of increasing support for populist parties, it remains uncertain what a Tisza victory would mean for the country.

Italy The spring will bring a referendum on constitutional reforms to the justice system, serving as a publicly gauged endorsement of right-wing populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition ahead of the 2027 elections.

Denmark After experiencing significant losses in the municipal elections in Denmark’s capital, Copenhagen, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats may encounter considerable difficulties in the forthcoming national elections, as polls indicate strong support for populist rivals.

Spain The upcoming regional elections in Aragón on February 8, Castilla y León on March 15, and Andalusia, Spain’s largest region by both size and population, by June 30, will be critical for both the socialist PSOE and the center-right opposition People’s Party (PP). The key issue will be whether the PP can achieve majorities before the 2027 general election without depending on support from the far-right populist Vox party.

Geopolitical Influences: the United States and China

Ironically, the most significant elections for Europe will take place in the United States this November. In November 2026, US voters will participate in the Congressional midterm elections, which will influence the composition of the US House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate seats. If the Republicans were to lose the House of Representatives, which polls indicate is a distinct possibility, President Donald Trump’s influence would be reduced. This could provide some relief for Europe; however, it remains uncertain whether Trump would be concerned about a potential defeat, and as such, events in the United States might still fuel the rise of populist parties in Europe.

Then, populist parties are by nature nationally oriented, and not internationally. The various populist parties prioritize their own people and thus have little sympathy for the ideology of the European Union’s, which assumes that the various European peoples can be characterized not only as national but also as European. The populist parties share a common aversion to the EU, but paradoxically they did and do participate in the European Parliament elections. After the 2024 European elections, populist factions in the European Parliament strengthened; the Patriots for Europe faction even became the third-largest political entity in the parliament (84 of the 720 seats). Other populist parties have grouped together in the Europe of Sovereign Nations faction (25 seats). While originally the mindset of European populist parties is against the European Union, we observe recently that these same parties attempt to transform that same European Union from within into a political system in which they can achieve their political goals: a populist European Union that defends the national interests of its members and not so much the common interests of all member states. Such a ‘populist’ European Union might as well reorient its policies towards Russia, as populist parties in Europe often express themselves in neutral or even positive terms towards Russian President Putin and his view on the ‘special military operation’ that his country is conducting against Ukraine.

In the context of these developments it is interesting to see the influence of the Chinese ‘equal and orderly multipolar’ world model, as promoted by Chinese President Xi Jingping, which strives after a world with  various centers of power rather than a single central power. It is an interesting question whether a ‘populist European Union’ will indeed develop within this Chinese concept. The nationalist aspirations of European populist parties, supported by the Trump administration, may very well fit in the end within the multipolar worldview as supported by China, which is on top of that one of the most powerful nations in the world, and whose multipolar ideology can be felt in all political domains, also in Europe.

What will political Europe look like a year from now?

Almost every European country has active populist parties on the political scene. Their fortunes fluctuate; for instance, the populist right-wing PiS Party lost national elections in Poland in 2023, as did the Dutch Party for Freedom in 2025. Although the French National Rally made gains in the parliamentary elections in France in 2024, these were not as significant as anticipated. However, later, the nationalist right wing candidate Nawrocki won the presidential elections in Poland, and various other populist parties saw considerable success in the Dutch elections in 2025. If these trends continue, we can expect a stronger presence of populist parties in parliaments, regional, and municipal institutions across Europe. They may play roles in forming governments and participating in regional and municipal councils. These incremental gains will lead to a more prominent populist presence in Europe, particularly in key countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.

The next general elections in the UK and Germany are set for 2029, while France will hold presidential elections in 2027. In the last elections in 2022, Marine Le Pen of the National Rally garnered 41% of the vote compared to Emmanuel Macron’s 59%, marking her highest support ever. However, Le Pen, the leader of the FN faction in the French Assembly, was convicted of fraud involving European funds in 2025 and is barred from running for office until 2030. Despite this, there is a pending lawsuit that could allow her to participate in the 2027 presidential election if successful. Should the lawsuit fail, her party colleague, Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, stands a strong chance of winning the election.

In Germany, the Chancellor is increasingly aware of the rising populist AfD party, while in the UK, if the Reform UK party secures a strong outcome in the 2026 municipal elections and maintains growth in polls, Prime Minister Starmer will face significant challenges from British populists. Will the Chancellor and the Prime Minister be able to appl such policies that the populist parties in their countries will not succeed in conquering governmental power in the next elections, be they far away? The option of this happening seems more and more realistic.

But the influence of the United States remains critical in Europe. The U.S. president began the year with the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicola Maduro and is exerting pressure on Denmark to cede Greenland to the U.S., not ruling out military action. A crisis over Greenland in 2026 would likely weaken NATO significantly, if not putting an end to the alliance, a situation that would benefit Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping strongly.

European democracies are not powerless; however, they face considerable pressure from internal populist challenges and shifting global power dynamics. Time will tell what the state of the art is in a year from now.

Click here for my book on the ideology of the Dutch Party for Freedom, free available.